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KNMI: TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 9 – Maria – Updated message Island Governor

Listen to the latest address of the Lieutenant Governor, Jonathan Johnson, to the Saba residents:



Date: Monday September 18, 2017 Time: 11:31 local time


A Tropical storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for Hurricane Maria. At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 60.1 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the Leeward Islands late today and tonight, over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea Tuesday and Tuesday night, and approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Wednesday.

Effect on local conditions


Tropical storm force (8 Bft, 39 mph, 62 km/h) winds are expected from Tuesday 02:00 AST with an increasing probability up to 95% for TS wind conditions in the period until Wednesday afternoon. Probability for hurricane force winds (74 mph, 118 km/h or more) is 20-30% in the aforementioned period. Most likely highest wind speed is approximately 50-55 mph, (80-90 km/h) on Tuesday between 12:00 and 24:00 AST.


A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands. Swells generated by Maria are already affecting the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. During Tuesday increasing to 15-20 ft from the afternoon. With an peak on Tuesday night around 20 ft. Wave direction initially from the E. After passing of the storm from S, later SW. After Wednesday 3 ft of swell from a W-ly direction is expected to last at least until Friday.


Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the northern Leeward Islands. Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Local authorities and residents of Saba and St. Eustatius are advised to continue monitoring the further progress of this weather system and to take all necessary measures to safeguard life and property.

Center’s latest and forecast positions:

Till Sat Sep 23 08:00 AST, the nearest position is estimated at:
Tue Sep 19 18:00 AST 16.7N 63.8W Category 4 Hurricane 127 km (79 mi) SSW of Saba

Mon Sep 18 11:00 AST 14.7N 60.1W Category 3 Hurricane   467 km (290 mi) SE of Saba
Mon Sep 18 20:00 AST 15.1N 61.2W Category 4 Hurricane   356 km (221 mi) SE of Saba
Tue Sep 19 08:00 AST 15.9N 62.6W Category 4 Hurricane    204 km (127 mi) SSE of Saba
Tue Sep 19 20:00 AST 16.8N 64.1W Category 4 Hurricane    130 km (81 mi) SW of Saba
Wed Sep 20 08:00 AST 17.6N 65.5W Category 4 Hurricane   240 km (149 mi) W of Saba
Thu Sep 21 08:00 AST 19.5N 68.5W Category 4 Hurricane     592 km (368 mi) WNW of Saba
Fri Sep 22 08:00 AST 21.5N 71.0W Category 4 Hurricane       920 km (572 mi) WNW of Saba
Sat Sep 23 08:00 AST 24.0N 72.5W Category 3 Hurricane    1194 km (742 mi) NW of Saba


TROPICAL STORM WARNING: A warning for tropical storm conditions, including possible sustained winds within the range 63-117 km/h (39-73 mph) (34-63) knots are expected in specified areas in 36 hours of less.

Next bulletin: Monday September 18, 2017, 17:31 local time
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